To be published in 2018
Evidence-based Unified Growth Theory
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are closely examined.Earlier explanations offered by the Unified Growth Theoryare scientifically unacceptable because (1) data used during the formulation of this theory were never mathematically analysed, (2) data were systematically distorted to support preconceived ideas and (3) earlier contradicting evidence was ignored.Precisely the same data, which in their distorted way were used to support of the Unified Growth Theory, are in its clear contradiction. Past socio-economic conditions,described in this theory, have no bearing on the explanation of growth trajectories. Data used in support of the Demographic Transition Theory were also never mathematically analysed and the obviously contradicting data were systematically ignored. This theory is also contradicted by data, even by the same data, which were used in its support. Growth of human population and economic growth in the past 2,000,000 years was steadily increasing by following exceptionally stable hyperbolic trajectories. Regional growth and even growth in individual countries were also preferably hyperbolic. In order to understand the past dynamics of growth it is essential to understand hyperbolic growth. The mechanism of hyperbolic growth of human population and of economic growth is now explained.
The Solution is Full Reserve / 100% Reserve Banking
Section 1 of this work argues the case for full reserve banking. Section 2 explains the flaws in a large number of arguments put AGAINST full reserve, and section 3 explains the flaws in a few arguments put IN FAVOUR of full reserve. This book is a slightly updated version of an online paper with the same title. The main changes / improvements are to section 1.4.
Agrarian and Rural Revitalisation Issues in China and Bulgaria
Around the globe, revitalization of agrarian and rural sector is one of the most topical issues for farmers, agrarian and rural communities, interest groups, researchers, investors, policymakers, and the public at large. In China and Bulgaria there are numerous publications on individual issues of agrarian and rural revitalization and sustainable development. Despite enormous progress in the theory and practice in that important new area, there are few comprehensive studies on the entire spectrum of agrarian and rural revitalization issuesin these two countries, and on their interactions with public policies, private and collective strategies and forms, market and technological development, social and communities’ dynamics, etc. What is more, there are no join and comparative studies on Chinese and Bulgarian experiences, despite quite similar historical development, fundamental transformation and modernization in the last several decades, and alike socio-economic and environmental challenges at current stage of development. This book is the result of an on-going research cooperation of the teams from the leading academic institutions in China and Bulgaria such as Shanghai Jiao Tong University in Shanghai, Communication University of China in Beijing, Institute of Agricultural Economics in Sofia, Agrarian University in Plovdiv, and University of National and World Economy in Sofia.
Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis
This book investigates the weak form efficiency of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) employing Autocorrelation test, Runs test and Unit Root tests, and the nature of volatility characteristics of stock returns applying GARCH family models in Bangladesh stock market using daily all share price index return data of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) from 02 January 1993 to 27 January 2013. The thesis also examines the semi-strong form of the EMH of DSE based on macroeconomic variable version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) applying Cointegration tests, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests, and the volatility of the DSE returns in response to the volatility of the macroeconomic variables employing GARCH family models using monthly data from January 2001 to December 2012. In addition, the short run and long run relationships between macroeconomic variables and aggregate stock prices in Bangladesh have also been determined. Employing both nonparametric tests (Runs test and Phillips-Perron test) and parametric tests (Autocorrelation test and Augmented Dickey-fuller test), this thesis finds that the Dhaka Stock Exchange of Bangladesh is not weak form efficient. The Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration tests reveal that industrial production index (IPI) and crude oil price (OP) have significant negative long run relationships with all share price index (DSI) of DSE, while money supply (MS), exchange rate (ER) and Indian stock prices (SENSEX) have significant positive long run relationship with all share price index of DSE. Results of VECM indicate that there is a long run causality running from IPI, M2, OP, ER and SENSEX to DSI. The error correction term of first differenced DSI implies that 15% of the last month’s disequilibrium becomes corrected monthly. The VECM results also show that DSI picks up the disequilibrium quickly and guides the variables of the system back to equilibrium.